In what the Irish Independent described as a "dramatic twist in the abortion debate" Fine Gael, Labour and Independent TDs and senators are proposing use Article 27 of the Constitution to force the government to put the proposed abortion legislation to the people in a referendum.

The irishonlineradio blog says that this would mean that "the President may not sign the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Bill 2013 into law until it is put to the public in a referendum, if a petition by members of the Oireachtas is signed by a majority of the Seanad and a third of the Dail. "

It also reports that "the clerk of the Oireachtas was approached earlier this week by the coalition of representatives to inquire as to the procedures for invoking article 27 of the constitution and it appears that numbers are growing in support of the move. "

"According to details I have received in confidential documents, from several sources close to the politicians involved, there is cross party support for the move in both Houses of the Oireachtas and Sinn Fein’s position on the matter could be pivotal.

However speaking on ‘The Week in Politics’, Sinn Fein’s Pearse Doherty ruled out support from his party, although one member has already pledged his support and the party is due to discuss the issue in the coming days.  Depending on the public’s reaction, Sinn Fein may well be motivated to reconsider their position," writes the blog's author, John J O'Donovan.  

Mr O Donovan writes that: "The figures I have obtained in briefings from sources close to the process, shows that there is a real possibility that they may get the numbers necessary to petition the President."

"The process has been initiated in the Dáil by Colm Keaveney TD (Ind.) and John Paul Phelan TD (Fine Gael), and in the Seanad by Senators Paul Bradford (FG) and James Heffernan (Labour).  In the Seanad the current preliminary figures stand at twenty-four, with support from members of Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Labour and Independents, the movement is confident they can get the remainder of the numbers in the Seanad.  In the Dáil those who have pledged their support are, eleven independents, twelve Fine Gael, twelve Fianna Fáil, three Labour and one Sinn Féin. "

"Bearing those figures in mind, that leaves support in the Dáil at a total of thirty-nine deputies, so at this point Sinn Féin’s support would be crucial and if they supported the move, a referendum may very well happen.".

The Sunday Independent reported that Mr Keaveney said: "This is a politically neutral initiative involving pro-life, pro-choice and non-committed figures. It is about those who are concerned about the escalating democratic deficit in the country."

The petitioners are confident of securing a majority of the Seanad; however, the Dail is somewhat more problematic given the divided state of the opposition. The Sunday Independent has been told, however, that while "it will be difficult, it is achievable".

One source noted: "Signing such a motion should not pose a problem for the 30 Fine Gael TDs who have expressed their concerns on this issue."

They added: "This is not a matter covered by the whip system; it is not legislation or a motion of confidence, it is a request to refer a matter of deep public interest to the voters. No one is being disloyal to anyone by signing this motion."

Instead, they claimed, it would "demonstrate that this generation of representatives has a respect for the opinion of the people and for a new way of conducting politics – a democratic revolution if you like".
Critically, allowing the matter to go to a referendum, they said, "would allow Fine Gael TDs to claim they had fulfilled their promise to protect the unborn since the issue would be referred to the people".

The opposition, with 57 TDs, consisting of 24 independent, 19 FF and 14 Sinn Fein TDs would have the numbers to force such a vote.

Though a divided Fianna Fáil party has not taken a definitive stance on the Bill, it would be extremely difficult for the party to oppose a referendum given the strength of feeling displayed at its recent ard fheis.
It is also believed from initial canvassing that a large proportion of independents may be "sympathetic" to the proposal while Sinn Fein too has strong reasons to heal internal wounds.

Ultimately it is expected that the support of a dozen Fine Gael TDs would be needed to get the required number of signatories.

In the wake of a tense Fine Gael meeting last week, there was much speculation in the wake of the failure of Peter Mathews to secure any support that opponents of the Bill had been seen off.

One source within the pro-life wing of the party said that "this didn't happen by accident, we haven't gone away you know''.

They added: "We weren't going to fall into the trap of supporting Peter. All the leadership were there in force. If that had come to a vote, we would have been routed and Enda could have claimed the Bill had secured the backing of the Fine Gael parliamentary party."

In an indication of the escalating tensions between the two wings of the Fine Gael party, another source noted that "there was a real atmosphere of the mob there; the leader had all his acolytes in there watching carefully".

A senior FG figure said: "Enda's defence of 'the people's book' – the Constitution – could come back to bite him yet; how can Enda stop TDs from using rights contained in 'the people's book' he is such a staunch defender of?''

LINKS

• http://irishonlineradio.wordpress.com/2013/06/23/exclusive-significant-amount-of-rebels-push-for-abortion-referendum/
• http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/tds-plot-to-force-abortion-poll-vote-29365603.html